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Posts by "passion trader"
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2 Posts by Anonymous "passion trader":
That would benefit safe haven currencies like the USD, JPY, and to a lesser extent, the CHF
Upward momentum and lack of negative news might allow risk assets some near term upside, but the added uncertainty about EU banks from the test results will need to be priced in at some point soon, especially if risk assets approach stronger resistance.
Positive US earnings season already priced in, thus its influence will either fade if good, or boost the USD if the tone turns more disappointing and hurts risk appetite.
Chinese banks that made loans to government building authorities for new projects may lose 23% of funds loaned per a Bloomberg report.
Fridays advanced US Q2 GDP is the major scheduled event for the USD, and could either confirm the picture of slowing growth or provide relief from the prevailing pessimism
Risk assets are at or near strong multi-month resistance. If that strong resistance holds, the USD is likely to benefit as a safe haven currency.
Struggling US economy could limit USD gains despite declining risk appetite. USD needs improving fundamentals relative to others, especially the EUR, to sustain a rally.
Slowing EUR short covering means EUR gains must come on continued rising risk appetite and/or fundamental improvements.
The above comments about the USD apply with the reverse, bearish affect on the Euro.
0123 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY drops on selling by Japan exporters, with falls weighing also on EUR/USD, says senior FX dealer at major European bank in Tokyo. Says any further falls in equities, Nikkei last down 0.3%, may prompt short-term investors to get on board selling of risk-sensitive EUR. Adds "the Moody's downgrade of Greece, while not a major selling factor, certainly isn't helping sentiment toward the euro either." Says many players in Asia anxious about how European share markets will react, in first full day of trade later in global day after Moody's move. Says EUR/JPY may trade with negative bias in 111.20-112.20; cross last 111.71, down from earlier high 112.13. Tips EUR/USD in 1.2170-1.2250 band vs 1.2207.